"This year, the sales of domestic refrigerators will drop by 20%~30%, from 50 million units last year to 40 million units." Gan Yonghe, vice president of Hisense Kelon (Weibo) Electric Co., Ltd., recently revealed to the "First Financial Daily".

After the rapid expansion of production in the first two years, the current domestic refrigerator production capacity has exceeded 100 million units. The industry expects that domestic refrigerator sales may show negative growth this year. Analysts believe that China's refrigerator industry has three percent overcapacity, and this year and next year will usher in an industry reshuffle.

There is a big leap forward in production capacity

Gan Yonghe believes that this is mainly caused by two major factors: policy overdraft and the downturn in the real estate market. The policies of "trade-in for the new" and "home appliances going to the countryside" have overdrawn part of the consumption power of household appliances in advance. With the gradual withdrawal of policies and the continuous regulation of the real estate industry, the growth rate of the household appliance industry will fall this year.

The relevant person in charge of another refrigerator listed company also said that it is difficult for domestic sales this year to be the same as last year.

Data from research institutes underpin this unoptimistic forecast. According to the statistics of Zhongyikang, in January ~ February this year, domestic refrigerator sales fell by 28.9% year-on-year; According to the data of Aowei Consulting, in January ~ February this year, domestic refrigerator sales fell by 15% year-on-year.

Zhongyikang expects that in 2011, domestic refrigerator sales will decline by 5% year-on-year to 35 million units, while in 2009, 2010 and 2011, domestic refrigerator sales increased by 11.9%, 20% and 2.9% year-on-year respectively.

The good times in 2009 and 2010 prompted a great leap forward in refrigerator production capacity. Industry insiders estimate that the domestic refrigerator production capacity has exceeded 100 million units per year. Midea once planned to expand its refrigerator production capacity in Hefei, Nansha and Jingzhou to 25 million units within five years.

Moreover, new entrants are coming. Among them, color TV companies are more active. Chen Weidong, CEO of TCL Home Appliance Industry Group, once revealed to this newspaper that if there is a suitable opportunity this year, he hopes to obtain stable refrigerator production capacity through acquisition. With the Chuzhou base in Anhui Province, Konka wants to expand the refrigerator business. Skyworth's refrigerator base in Nanjing was put into operation last year.

Air conditioners and washing machine companies also came to get a piece of the pie. Gree's base in Hefei currently has a channel for the production of "Jinghong" brand refrigerators and the sale of Gree air conditioning stores. This year, Hefei Sanyo took the opportunity to create a new brand of "Didu" and officially entered the field of refrigerators.

And the new up-and-coming. Omar Electric, a fast-growing refrigerator OEM company that leverages household appliances to go to the countryside, has recently landed on the small and medium-sized board.

From the perspective of export sales, the economy in Europe and the United States is weak this year, and the refrigerator export situation is not optimistic, so overcapacity has become a fact.

Change is brewing

With the expansion of production capacity and the shrinking of the market, the refrigerator industry is facing a new round of changes.

Gan Yonghe believes that under the financial crisis in 2008, the refrigerator industry originally had a number of miscellaneous enterprises out, and the policy of "household appliances to the countryside" allowed some small and medium-sized enterprises to survive.

Last year, there were nearly 100 brands that participated in the bidding for "home appliances to the countryside" refrigerators. Han Yu, research director of the white goods center of Aowei Consulting, predicts that some small refrigerator factories in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta that have survived through the policy of sending household appliances to the countryside will have their aging refrigerator production capacity eliminated.

At the same time, the camp in front of the domestic refrigerator industry will also change. At present, Haier is leading, followed by Midea, Hisense Kelon, Meiling, and Xinfei. Han Yu predicts that one or two companies in the second camp will be "left behind".

As a result, the giants are stretching to the high and low ends, trying to squeeze out the share of others. Haier strongly promotes the high-end refrigerator of "Casarte" and the cheap refrigerator of "Commander"; Hisense rebuilds"Rongsheng refrigerator",Want to seize more mid-to-high-end markets; Midea is also pushing Van Diro's high-end refrigerators; After Meiling's marketing changes in the fourth quarter of last year, this year it focuses on product upgrades.

An industry insider revealed to this newspaper that in order to avoid excessive inventory, well-known refrigerator companies have reduced operating rates and delegated greater autonomy to regional sales companies to speed up product turnover.